OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.