Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who replied, 58.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.2%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 5.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.