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Maryland: New Goucher College*Goucher College* poll has Trump trailing by 33 points


Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results




Of those who replied, 58.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.2%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 5.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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