Results of a new poll conducted by JMC Analytics were published. The poll asked respondents from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 35.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24. A total of 905 likely voters responded. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.5%. In comparison to his numbers in the JMC Analytics poll Trump's poll average is 3.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.