Results of a new poll carried out by JMC Analytics were released. The poll asked participants from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
The results show that 35.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24, among a random sample of 905 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.