Lockerbie model: Clinton is in the lead

The Lockerbie model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.7%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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