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Lewis-Beck & Tien model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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