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Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.7%. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Leading indicators model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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