UPI/CVOTER published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from September 19 to September 25 among 1052 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.1 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. To compare: 51.6% was gained by Clinton in the UPI/CVOTER poll on August 30, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.3%. In comparison to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.