Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were released. The poll asked respondents from Georgia for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% will vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 13 to September 21 with 659 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.