Results of a new poll carried out by KSTP/SurveyUSA were spread. The poll asked respondents from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 16 to September 20 with 625 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. On November 2 Clinton obtained only 48.3% in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll and Trump obtained 51.7%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Minnesota polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.4%. In comparison to her numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.