Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.7%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results compared to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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