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Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton, and 47.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.7%. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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