Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 29.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 68.1% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.