Results of a new poll conducted by Gravis were released. The poll asked interviewees from Colorado for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Colorado has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, 37.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 23 among 799 registered voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 47.4% for Clinton and 52.6% for Trump. To compare: 51.2% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on July 8, for Trump this result was only 48.8%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 50.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Colorado. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.9% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.