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FOX News poll in Nevada: Clinton behind by 4 points

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FOX News published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

In Nevada, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

FOX News poll results
42

Clinton

46

Trump

According to the results, 42.0% of participants would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20, among a random sample of 704 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the FOX News poll Trump's poll average is 1.1 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote is 2.6 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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