FOX News published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Nevada, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
FOX News poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of participants would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20, among a random sample of 704 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the FOX News poll Trump's poll average is 1.1 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote is 2.6 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.