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Fiscal model model shows Trump in the lead

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The Fiscal model model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.3%. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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