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Fair model: Trump is in the lead

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The Fair model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 5.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.

The Fair model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 8.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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