Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 7.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.