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Electoral-cycle model: Trump is in the lead


The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.3%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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