Results of a new national poll administered by Economist were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Economist poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 22 to September 24 with 948 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. In the most recent Economist poll on August 29 Clinton obtained only 47.2%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Economist poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.