The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump obtaining 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% and Trump 47.6% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.