Convention bump model: Clinton is in the lead

The Convention bump model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.7%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Convention bump model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Convention bump model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.