The Convention bump model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.7%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Convention bump model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Convention bump model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.