Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were announced. The poll asked participants from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants indicated to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 1000 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. To compare: Only 54.6% was obtained by Clinton in the Emerson poll on April 11, for Trump this result was 45.5%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.2% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.