Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 50.0% of participants intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 1000 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.