CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Colorado has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular interest.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 21 to September 23 with 991 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Colorado. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.