Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Colorado is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often gained similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, the two candidates have the same level of support, each with 47.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 13 to September 21 with 612 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. In the latest Quinnipiac poll on November 15 Clinton received only 43.5%, while Trump received 56.5%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.1 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.1% and Trump 47.9% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Clinton has 2.1 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Colorado. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.