KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 57.0% of participants plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% plan to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11 among 678 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 61.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.