As of today, Polly predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.4% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.6% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently in the lead by 50.4%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are Citizen forecasts with a vote share of 51.8% for Clinton. With a vote share of 49.6% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 49.6% in econometric models is particularly low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.