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Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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