The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 50.9% for Clinton, and 49.1% for Trump. In comparison, on September 1 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, we recommend to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.