538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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