The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.9% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.1%. In comparison, on September 23, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.