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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.9% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.1%. In comparison, on September 23, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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