Results of a new national poll carried out by NBC News were announced. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
NBC News poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 12 and September 18. The sample size was 1332 participants. The error margin is +/-1.2 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.