Results of a new poll conducted by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27, among a random sample of 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. To compare: Only 53.1% was obtained by Clinton in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on January 20, for Trump this number was 46.9%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is insignificant.