Results of a new poll conducted by Morning Call were spread. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Morning Call poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 16. A total of 405 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-5.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Morning Call poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.