Results of a new poll carried out by ElonElon were published. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
ElonElon poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 16. A total of 644 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.6 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.