Results of a new poll carried out by Civitas (R) were announced. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, businessman Donald Trump and former New York Senator Hillary Clinton have the same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out between September 11 and September 12. The sample size was 600 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.0% and Trump 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.