Results of a new poll administered by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were circulated. The poll asked participants from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between January 18 and January 20. The sample size was 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on September 14 Clinton obtained 53.7%, while Trump obtained only 46.3%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.