Minnesota: New Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll shows Trump behind by 5 points

Results of a new poll administered by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were circulated. The poll asked participants from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

According to the results, 43.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between January 18 and January 20. The sample size was 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on September 14 Clinton obtained 53.7%, while Trump obtained only 46.3%.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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