OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 69.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.