Results of a new poll carried out by NY Times/Siena were published. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
NY Times/Siena poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 16 to September 19 among 782 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.