KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 57.0% of respondents will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11, among a random sample of 678 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 61.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.