Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 13.6%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.