The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.4%. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.