Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 29.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 66.5% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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