Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 29.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 66.5% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.