FOX News released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FOX News poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 18 to September 20 with 734 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.8 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.