Results of a new national poll conducted by ABC/Post were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ABC/Post poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted between September 19 and September 22. The sample size was 651 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump. To compare: Only 46.3% was gained by Clinton in the ABC/Post poll on August 4, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 51.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the ABC/Post poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.