Morning Consult released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Morning Consult poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 via Internet. A total of 1712 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. In the latest Morning Consult poll on September 2 Clinton obtained 51.2%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Morning Consult poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.