ABC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ABC News poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 19 to September 22 among 651 participants. The sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump. For comparison: Only 45.7% was gained by Clinton in the ABC News poll on August 4, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the ABC News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.