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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


Polly today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

Contrary to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.3%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 51.5% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.7% of the vote.

The econometric models forecast of 49.7% for the Democratic candidate is rather low in comparison to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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