Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 19 to September 20 with 700 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump. On April 3 Clinton obtained 56.0% in the Emerson poll and Trump obtained only 44.1%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Wisconsin sees Clinton at 52.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.